In praise of peace

1. The operation of October 7, despite its losses, made an important change in the fate of Palestine and put the formation of two governments on the table of world politics after many years. Before that, the Israeli government defined the Palestinians as its internal problem and claimed that the independent Palestinian state is meaningless and finished. Settlement construction displaced more and more Palestinians every day and handed over their homes to newly arrived Jews. But apparently, Hamas' assumptions such as relying on Israel's internal divisions, being short on hostages, and the Israeli army's inability to fight a long-term war, proved to be wrong.
Netanyahu also took the opportunity to kill more than 42 thousand Palestinians and tried to break the people's resistance by forcing hunger and displacement on them and destroying a large part of Gaza, but he failed.

2. Hezbollah's involvement in this conflict was selfless but damaging and in addition to killing a number of Lebanese citizens, it resulted in the destruction of an important part of its human and logistical capacities. Hezbollah is a political party and must act within the framework of the nation-state. Its entry into any war must be part of a national decision made by the government. Of course, the right to defend against foreign army encroachment on the homeland is reserved for all citizens and parties, but the military intervention of a party in a foreign crisis without the decision of the government is not justified. Using this error, Israel has so far assassinated hundreds of members, many commanders and the Secretary General of Hezbollah and destroyed some of its equipment and facilities.

3. The imprudent performance during Russia's attack on Ukraine has made the western countries' attitude towards Iran more negative. The predominance of the election contests in the American political atmosphere has also allowed Netanyahu to leave aside any consideration in facing Iran and its allies and raise the level of tension to the assassination of the head of the Hamas political office in Tehran.

4. Israel cannot destroy Hamas and Hezbollah, because they have a popular base and sooner or later they will repair the blows, no matter how heavy. The Islamic Republic is also unable to wipe out Israel because all the great powers consider themselves committed to maintaining its existence. Based on this, the way to save is to try to change the strategy of both parties. The first step is to use all capacities to prevent the spread of tensions and the occurrence of war between the two countries.

5. The most dangerous aspect of the war for Iran is the miserable economic situation and the widespread dissatisfaction of Iranians with the ineffectiveness of the governance system. Violation of the individual and national rights of citizens and suppression of their political, social and cultural freedoms on the one hand, and on the other hand the back-breaking high prices and inflation, which is rooted in the wrong strategy of the leader, has created a big gap between the government and the majority of the nation. Nevertheless, I consider the encouragement or justification of war or foreign military invasion of Iran to liberate Iranians to be unrealistic and against the national interests, and I am against it. War in the current Middle East is disastrous, and going to war, whether in the government or in the opposition, is actually targeting Iran.

6. A war with Israel, which has powerful supporters and knows no bounds in killing and destruction, will not topple the Islamic Republic, just as Trump's maximum sanctions failed to topple it, although it strengthened authoritarianism. War can cause serious damage to the country's infrastructure, worsen services to the people, spread poverty and corruption, and create new shortages. It also makes extremists rule the country.
Even if it overthrows the Islamic Republic, it will not lead to the establishment of a democratic government. It is almost certain that Iranians will be caught in statelessness and chaos. Territorial and national integrity may even be endangered. Both situations keep the nation away from development, prosperity and democracy for many years.

7. The average growth of prices in the last 34 years has been 12 thousand percent. Currently, more than 25 million Iranians are below the poverty line, and 5 million of them do not have money to buy food. This bitter reality is caused by the current wrong strategy. Wefaq is not the solution to the problems for its continuation, just as the unification of the government in the presidential government did not solve the problems. The Islamic Republic should not only go to war, but in order to overcome crises, it must end the "no war/no peace" situation that has kept the society in a state of suspense, anxiety and expectation. Then the consensus of meaning and the hope of solving problems will increase. Agreeing on a wrong strategy will increase poverty, corruption and disorder, spread dissatisfaction, despair and anger, and God forbid, it can lead Iran to the brink of war.

Sayyed Mostafa Tajzadeh

Evin
16 Mehr 1403