Possibilities of the collapse of dictatorial systems

There is an impression that dictatorial regimes are overthrown only through revolution [popular uprisings], but this is not the case. The events and methods leading to the overthrow of dictatorial regimes are diverse. The seven methods according to their abundance are as follows.

1. A coup is the most common event leading to the overthrow of a dictator, with a probability of thirty-five percent. A coup d'état is the easiest and fastest method of overthrowing with minimal bloodshed.

2. Elections and referendums, with a probability of twenty-six percent, are the second way to bring down a dictatorial regime. The elections that lead to the end of the regime include both semi-competitive and healthy elections. In this way, the participation of at least half of the participants in the elections is required to vote for a candidate who is not supported by the regime. ... the dictator gives in to the election or referendum under the pressure of the people;

3. A popular uprising or velvet revolution is the third way to overthrow the regime with a probability of seventeen percent. To win in this way, the participation of a large part of citizens is needed for protest movements and civil disobedience;

4. Rebellion or armed uprising is the fourth method of overthrow with an eight percent probability. For the success of this method, a group of military-trained people, weapons, and other combat facilities are needed, although the number of participants can be small. Armed insurgencies usually take a long time to win;

5. Changing the government from within, with a probability of eight percent, is the fifth way to overthrow a dictatorial regime. Usually, another person from within the power circle replaces the dictator;

6. Foreign interference is the sixth way to topple a dictatorial regime with a probability of 4%;

7. Destruction and disintegration of the country is also the seventh and last way of overthrowing a dictatorial regime with a probability of 2%.

Bijan Ashtari

Author's explanation: I have quoted from the book "How Dictatorships Work" written by Barbara Geddes and Eric Frantz: It is a good book that needs to be translated into Farsi. [...] Publishing the opinions of writers and theorists does not necessarily mean agreeing with the opinions.