When and under what conditions does the internet connect? The answer is on the street, at sea, and in the sky.

In the security reading of the Islamic Republic's behavior, the internet is not a "public infrastructure"; it is a crisis management lever. Its connection or disconnection follows the logic of the street, intelligence-security-judicial oversight, and the strategic environment surrounding Iran. Based on the events of the past two weeks and following AbdiMedia's previous notes, it can be said that the internet will return only at a specific time and under specific conditions; neither sooner nor fully.

1. Practical Subsidence of the Street and Breaking the Protest Rhythm
The establishment's criterion is not the number of gatherings, but the capacity to reproduce protest. The internet will be reconnected when large gatherings have subsided, the rhythm of synchronization and continuity has been broken, and the protest has shifted from the "field" to a "scattered, quiet, or ineffective space." Any level of capacity for a rapid return or seizing the streets will cause the disruption to persist.

2. Completion of the Identification, Detention, and Confession Cycle
The internet remains blocked until security agencies extract field data from detainees, identify local and urban protest networks, and prepare the judicial-televised narrative (confessions). Reconnecting the internet before this stage means the return of independent imagery, continued coordination, and interference in the security project. Indeed, in recent days, we have witnessed the formation and evolution of this cycle, from identification and arrests to televised confessions.

3. Consolidation of the Official Narrative and Post-Crisis Management
The return of the internet does not mean the return of freedom of communication; it means the start of a new phase. It will involve a gradual return, limited bandwidth, heavier filtering, and full control over the flow of information. The future internet will be more "engineered" rather than open, and we will witness even greater control by the authorities responsible for cyber affairs. To some extent, we should expect the same "Class-based Internet" or the "Cyberspace Protection Bill" (Tarh-e Sianat)—which previously sparked controversy—to be implemented now without outcry and with easier acceptance by all officials of the Islamic Republic. This is another instance that, alongside others, can be considered a "blessing" of recent events for the Islamic Republic and the system's security mega-puzzle.

4. A Major and Decisive Condition: Stability of the International Environment
In the Islamic Republic's security model, the decision regarding the internet depends on the "domestic situation plus the stability and lack of threat in the external strategic environment." If the external environment becomes unstable, the internet will be reconnected later and more restrictively to maintain control. Specifically, the internet will only be reconnected when there is no sign of the crisis entering an external phase. This means:

A) The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln does not move: Its lack of movement or lack of change in alert status signals to Tehran that Washington is not seeking an immediate strike.

B) The composition of U.S. bases in the region remains stable: Meaning no significant movement in bases in Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan; the Islamic Republic monitors these indicators with high precision and sensitivity.

C) Europe takes no military or paramilitary action: Any reconnaissance flight, frigate movement, or warning declaration could lead to the continued internet shutdown and an increased alert level.

D) Israel shows no "meaningful" military movement: Tehran interprets any sign of change in Tel Aviv’s aerial or naval formation as a signal of a "potential strike" and keeps the internet closed.

E) Western rhetoric remains the same: Meaning no talk of "attack," "red lines," or "imminent action," and the use of language similar to Trump’s current public diplomacy. Mild addresses, non-explicit warnings, and ambiguous language signal a phase of containment to the Islamic Republic, not a phase of action—while it currently needs some of the massive political pressure to be reduced.

F) Trump does not cancel his trip next week to the Davos summit: If Trump goes to Davos as planned and does not cancel the trip, Tehran will be assured that no immediate security or military decisions are underway in Washington. A cancellation could be seen as a sign of high alert and crisis, directly resulting in the continuation of the internet shutdown.

Probable Timing of Internet Connection
If all the above conditions are met—the street subsides, identification and arrests are completed to the satisfaction of security agencies, and the external environment remains calm—then the pattern of reconnection over the next 3 to 7 days appears likely. This will be sequential and layered: starting with SMS and mobile communications, followed by the National Intranet (including domestic messengers), and finally the global internet, albeit with stricter considerations and oversight.