The Reform Gamble; The Collapsed Pillar and the Architecture of Imbalanced Power

Abdullah Abdi – AbdiMedia

In the absence of stable access to information and relying on scattered data currently being published through informal channels, one can only speak of "trends" rather than certainties.

What follows is an attempt to understand these very trends; trends which, if confirmed later, could provide a clearer picture of the internal state of the political structure.

Over the past two decades, the general political structure of the Islamic Republic has been built upon a kind of "official duality": a conservative faction and a reformist faction. If the reports regarding the recent status of the Reformist movement are confirmed, it can be said that this second pillar no longer possesses its past ability to play a role. No political system can remain stable and balanced in the long term while standing on only one leg.

1. Reformism: Entering a Pre-Lost Gamble During the recent elections, I wrote several times that the Reformist and Moderation movement—whether their supported candidate lost or won—would ultimately be the biggest losers of the system's broader macro-politics. This is because, by entering the competition, they effectively became part of a larger map; a map where the game's outcome was predetermined, and their share of the "power cake" in the future structure of the Islamic Republic was defined as nearly zero.

2. Signs of Fragmentation in the Architecture of Power Reports of closed-door meetings of the Reformist Front and severe security reactions, if true, could indicate that the system's political architecture has entered a stage of fragmentation and internal sensitivity. In such conditions, any sign of divergence at the elite level is perceived as a security risk—a common sign in structures facing multi-layered pressures.

3. The End of a Role, or the End of a Function? If the narratives are correct, the Reformist movement, which for years served as the "complementary sector" and "balance valve" within the system's structure, has now reached the end of its historical role. This does not mean official elimination, but rather the loss of its function; a function defined by managing gaps, creating balance, and producing minimal legitimacy.

4. The Pezeshkian Government: The Point of Equilibrium Shift Some analyses believe that from the moment President Pezeshkian decided to align himself with the hard core of power and the security-judicial forces, the balance upon which the system had been built for years underwent a meaningful change. If this analysis is correct, the political choice of the current government has caused the distance between the Reformists and the power structure to increase more than ever before. In such a case, the Reformists' role in the system's political architecture has not just been suspended, but effectively ended.

In summary, considering the aforementioned points, it can be said that the political structure of the Islamic Republic has entered a period in which:

• The Reformist pillar no longer holds its former balancing role.

• The architecture of power shows signs of fragmentation.

• The historical function of the Reformist movement is nearing its end.

• The decisions of the Pezeshkian government may have, unintentionally or by design, severed the final link between this movement and the center of power.

In the final analysis, there is always a moment when structures go "off-orbit" without officially collapsing; a moment that is not visible from the outside but is clearly felt within the inner layers. The pillar that for years played the role of the system's second support no longer shows any sign of its former function today; and no political architecture can navigate through crises with only one leg. In such a situation, every small disagreement is translated into a "crack," every crack into a "breach," and every breach into "fragmentation"—the very signs of which are seen sporadically these days.

On the other hand, President Pezeshkian's decision to position himself in alignment with the hard core of power has torn the last connecting link between Reformism and the decision-making center. From this point forward, one can no longer speak of an "effective component" role for the Reformists; a role that if once a necessity for the system's balance, is now merely a memento of a bygone era.

What remains is a system standing on one leg, in an atmosphere where every signal gains more meaning than its actual significance.