Iran After 12 Days - Seyed Mostafa Tajzadeh

The Dead End of the Velayat-e Faqih

The comprehensive failure of the Velayat-e Faqih system has made Iran ripe for extensive, deep, and inevitable transformations. Everyone is awaiting change, but no one knows when and how these changes will occur, what path they will follow, or what their outcome will be. Will we transition to democracy, or will we witness statelessness, chaos, and then a new tyranny? In any case, whether the transformations are peaceful depends entirely on the actions of stakeholders and role players, from the rulers and their opponents to the general public. In my opinion, the leader cannot prevent the changes from happening, but he can make them extremely costly and create a dark and violence-filled future for the nation. To put it plainly, Mr. Khamenei's refusal to cooperate with the transformations will not deter the people from realizing them; however, his confrontation with the people's demands has unpredictable and highly risky consequences, to the extent that it may leave no way to compensate for the damages caused by this stubbornness, at least in the short term.

He can't, he won't

While the situation above is hopeless, there are many signs of hope below.  In my opinion, despite the ignorance and stagnation in the government, deep and extensive changes are taking place in the society.  In the course of living, people have challenged the humiliations, discriminations and impositions of the government with their actions and initiatives and pushed the regime back with civil resistance and sometimes with civil disobedience.  It is true that the project of governance is to disperse the citizens and prevent them from organizing, but this destructive process is largely neutralized by the awareness, courage and creativity of the people.  In addition, despite the organized efforts of the center of power, Iranians have not been silent and passive victims in these years, although they have sometimes remained defenseless and helpless.  The fact is that the slow but continuous and effective progress of the people has dimmed the leader's most important red line.  The passage of the Iranian Qataba and even the majority of believers in Islamic rites through the mandatory hijab means negating and rejecting the existential philosophy of the clerical government.  When jurisprudence rulings cannot be made mandatory, there is no reason for the continuation of "jurisprudence" authority.  According to the leader, others, i.e. customary governments, can easily and better manage people's worldly affairs.  From this point of view, the clerics have taken over the government to make the Islamic rules and the hijab compulsory.  For this reason, they call the mandatory hijab as the flag of the Velayat al-Faqih system, and the release of the hijab is a sign and prelude to the end of "mandatory province", "mandatory confessions" and "mandatory heaven".  The leader is aware of this fact, but there is not much he can do, because the people have made their decision and do not accept the continuation of the police and security environment to require the hijab.  Most of the believers have also seen the negative consequences of compulsory hijab in the apostasy and anti-religiousness of people, especially young people, and they have found the freedom of hijab to be less harmful for people's religion and beliefs than its compulsion.  For this reason, I consider the process of releasing the hijab irreversible.  The pressure of public opinion has caused the negation of the negotiation with America, the filtering of the cyber space has been neutralized and the losses of the detention of the leaders of the Green Movement for Wali Faqih have been greater than ever.  The discretionary supervision, which has made the system inefficient, corrupt and oppressive with anti-meritism and yes, scapegoating, has rightly directed the sharp edge of criticism towards the leader, so that the more the radio and Friday imams try to portray Mr. Khamenei's administration as a prophet and his guidelines as a path-breaker, the less listeners they find.  The numerous failures of the system and the growth of citizens' awareness, especially after the brilliant "Women, Life, Freedom" movement, have left no room for the extravagant claims of the Garrison Party and its leader.  Now, most of the people consider the government of jurists and clerics as failed and the leader as the founder of the existing deplorable situation.

The Art of the Nation

The art of the nation is to compel the leader to listen to its voice while maintaining order and security, so that Iran can move along the path of democratic development. The nation must be able, and with God's help will be able, to make Mr. Khamenei realize that the era in which his options were 'retaining complete power' or 'sharing it' is over. His real choice now is 'relinquishing all power' or opening the way for 'everyone's participation in governing the country' and for all citizens to peacefully enjoy public benefits. Otherwise, the country will fall into lawlessness and chaos. It is clear that the interests of the ruling faction are one of the major obstacles to structural changes. Many of them are so short-sighted that they cannot tolerate even the slightest disruption to the crony/mafia-style capitalism, even if disaster is just around the corner. However, the nation can either silence and neutralize the parvenus or bring them along with the changes, without letting society fall into the trap of blind emotions.

Negotiations with America

The leader's wrong strategy, especially in the last two decades, has led him astray more than anyone else.  It has become impossible to run the country in a dictatorial and individual way and with the policies that have brought Iran to this miserable day, and the country is caught in fundamental turmoil.  Adhering to fundamental and necessary changes to overcome the current intertwined crises also requires abandoning monotony and returning sovereignty to the people. 

At present, the leader can't rule with "Al-Nasr Bal Raab" method and strike more fear into hearts with arrests, death sentences and imprisonment.  No, it is under the burden of deep and vast changes that depend on gaining the trust, satisfaction and participation of the nation.

It is not possible to prepare and implement long-term plans despite the sanctions, nor are temporary solutions the answer to the current synergistic crises.

Neither a new war can solve the problems, nor a comprehensive and just peace with America is available.

Neither can it give priority to strengthening the "axis of resistance" as in the past, nor is it possible to control inflation, stagnation and unemployment without canceling the sanctions.

It does not have the power to impose hijab on women, nor the capacity to tolerate the freedom of their hijab. 

It cannot continue the project of militarizing the government and garrisoning the society, nor will it leave the administration of the country to civilians.

It can neither remove critics with the tactic of discretionary supervision, nor does it favor free and fair elections.

It cannot ignore the opinions and demands of the majority, nor does it welcome national dialogue, understanding and national reconciliation.

Neither can he continue to speak from the position of omniscient and creditor, nor does he surrender power to the people by accepting pluralism.

Neither will he find a successor who can hand over the powers of the world and man to him, nor will he agree to amend/change the constitution.

It cannot continue the political ice age, nor does it do anything to melt the ice between the government and the nation.

He does not have the courage to defy the poison cup, nor the courage to resign.

The leader who can't steer the ship of the country safely through the storms with carnaval and inexperienced managers, even in the most sensitive and complex conditions, has not yet accepted the fundamental changes and is not willing to hand over the steering to capable, experienced and efficient figures, as a result, the ship will crash into the rocks or sink into the mud.  This is while the country has a way out, but the leader does not give in to it.  What the Supreme Leader wants, the majority of the nation does not want, and vice versa.  The pandemic deadlock resulting from this conflict is fateful.  Fortunately, the passage of time is to the detriment of the Velayat al-Faqih system, but unfortunately, it is not clear that we will reach the shore of salvation.

In short, government Islam in the sense of "authoritarian and coercive Islam" has lost its attractiveness and mobilizing power.  Despite this, the Egyptian leader insists on keeping it alive and ruling based on it, even in a situation where the Mehsa (Gina) movement has made it impossible to fully police and secure the space, because the protest reaction of the people, especially the youth, is both serious and destructive for the government;  And the leader is aware of this fact.

 Leader stutters

 Whoever is caught in such a dead end and limbo, it becomes very difficult, if not impossible, for him to speak and take strategic decisions.  For this reason, the leader cannot criticize the previous regime without stuttering, because in many areas, the situation during the Shah's time was not worse, if not better.  He also cannot explain the failures and pathologies of the ruling system because he personally played a decisive role in the failures.  It is not possible for him to draw a clear horizon.  In my opinion, the leader's speaking less after the 12-day war is more due to security considerations, because he does not have new and promising words.  The following successive failures have broken the bubble of the leader's logic, consigned the legend of the "Vice of the Infallible Imam" to history, and collapsed the myth of the "All-Knowing Leader":

1- Inability to realize the ideals of the Iranian nation (justice, freedom, progress and prosperity).

2- The unprecedented spread of poverty, corruption, discrimination and increasing social and economic problems of citizens.

3- Inability to ensure peace and prevent war.

4- Continuation of sanctions and their re-imposition (mechanism called "trigger" and "snapback").

5- The continuous and alarming drop in the audience of Leader Radio and other propaganda platforms of the system.

6- Many of the leader's prophecies and predictions were wrong.

7-Failure in filtering and ending monophonic.

8- The growth of public awareness and the shedding of citizens' fear.

It is instructive that despite numerous internal and external failures, the leader still excuses himself from committing any mistakes and blames all the shortcomings and faults on specially elected officials.  It seems that the recent war has put an end to the leader's illusion about the destruction of Israel by the "Axis of Resistance", and has opened the way for a fundamental revision in Iran's regional and even global diplomacy.

Achievement crisis and discourse failure

 The failure of the Velayat-e-Faqih system in providing freedom, justice, development and prosperity has made the Islamic Republic face a crisis of achievement and endangered its existence.  In my opinion, one of the important reasons why the leader calls Iranian youth's birth certificate a missile is to divert their attention from the system's failure to realize national ideals.  He tries to replace the rocket with justice and freedom, which is of course a futile effort.  Of course, I do not consider the duality of "missiles or people's satisfaction" to be correct and accurate.  Currently, Iran needs both national support and must benefit from the most advanced missiles.  Currently, the missile is the most effective deterrent military lever of our country, especially against Israel.  But reducing the Iranian identity to a rocket maker is a deviation from the demands of the Iranians since the constitutional movement until now.  Building a rocket is necessary and important and admirable.  But freedom, justice and all-round and sustainable development make Iran prosperous, beautiful and safe and realize the ideal of the nation.

Apart from that, the leader does not pay attention to the fact that if the criterion of honor and identity becomes a rocket, not only the youth in America, Europe, China, Russia and India, but even in North Korea will surpass the Iranian youth;  Because all of them have ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles with the ability to carry nuclear warheads!  When the armed forces rule the country, the missile becomes the identity card of the Iranian youth, not the establishment of human order and military that can bring together "freedom" and "equality" in the sense of the constitutional era and "freedom", "equality" and "human rights" of today and create a new plan. 

One of the obvious signs of the leader's strategic failure is the 10% increase in the Hezbollah population.  According to Bahaner's confession, religious and revolutionary youth have become a pure minority and 90% of people want a different lifestyle.  Iranism and recently archaism of the leader's faction are also raised in this framework, which of course comes with obvious contradictions.  For example, they forbid people to visit Persepolis on the anniversary of Cyrus, and at the same time, they display an Achaemenid soldier in the streets of Tehran!  I see the statue of "Sasanian Emperor" in the "Islamic Revolution" square as a symbolic but inglorious farewell to all the extravagant claims that called the "Provincial Republic" the end of 2,500 years of "black and full of calamity" monarchy.

Strategic questions

 Iran cannot be saved with the approach that has brought us to the current sad situation.  Therefore, I see the problem not in the necessity of change, but in its consequences and consequences, and in my opinion, the main questions are:

1- What should be done to make the inevitable changes happen with the least losses and wastes and the most dynamics and stability?

2- Should the goal be to overthrow the government or the system or to transition to democracy and achieve comprehensive and fair development?

3- Is revenge original or litigation?

4- Is only religious tyranny bad and should go, or should secular dictatorship not rule the country again?

5- Can Iran be considered equal to one voice and one tendency or should we join hands so that Iran belongs to all Iranians?  In other words, should the elimination attitude be used as a guide and choose the "win-lose" strategy, or is it necessary to choose the "win-win" method, strive to attract everyone's participation, and try to make every citizen and group, according to their social base, participate and participate in the management of the country?

6- Is it more possible to achieve development and democracy in Iran with a weakened authoritarian regime or with its violent overthrow?

The first and sixth questions have historical importance and are largely related to each other and play a large role in determining the assignment of other questions.

The root of the problems

 The obstructionist structure of Velayat al-Faqih, Iran-fueled strategy of leadership and giving field to Carnabald opportunists has played the biggest role in causing problems and inefficient and even paralyzing the government.  The leader has paved the way for eliminating the elites and attracting the elites with the discretionary supervision;  By anti-Americanism and prioritizing the strengthening of the "Axis of Resistance" and allocating an important part of national wealth and resources to the illusion of "eradicating Israel", he has forgotten the development of Iran and with the approach of "no war, no negotiation" has imposed the destructive and harmful situation of "no war, no peace" on the nation.

In my opinion, Mr. Khamenei's strategy does not give the possibility and opportunity to solve the root problems such as the lack of water, electricity and gas to the problem of land subsidence, fine dust and air pollution on the one hand and high prices, inflation, stagnation and unemployment on the other.  With his approach, Iran will never be on the path of comprehensive, stable and fair development.  Whether there is a war or not with the current policies and whether the Islamic Republic stays or goes, the subversive phenomenon of statelessness threatens the country, if the leader does not submit to fundamental reforms and change the governance paradigm as soon as possible and burns the few remaining opportunities.

Close the conversation

One of the major reasons why our society is caught in the midst of life-threatening crises is the closure of channels of public discussion about national issues by the leader.  By sticking to the method of authoritarian regimes, he has not allowed the owners of thoughts and opinions in the media, universities and fields to discuss freely about national issues and find solutions about them.  Censorship does not allow everyone, especially the government, to understand what is happening under the skin of the society, what other societies are doing and what is the way to solve the problems?  The leader's attempt for one-voice rule, especially the mass seizure of the press since 1378, in addition to the people, has also dealt a great blow to the hard core of power and has distanced the government from reality and the nation in an increasing way, to the extent that the young generation does not recognize the rulers and does not care about them.  The government is unable to understand the youth and cannot interact with them and have an effective dialogue.

The consciousness of the nation

 What has preserved Iran in the ups and downs of recent years and decades has been primarily the awareness, timing and patience of the nation, not the tact and foresight of the leader.  Iranians have seen the consequences of the military intervention of America and its allies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, etc.  Most of the problems of these countries remain unsolved and sometimes their severity and complexity have increased.  For this reason, the people, despite their dissatisfaction and even anger towards the government, due to the creation of breathtaking and unavoidable bottlenecks, they are not ready to settle accounts with the regime at the same time as the military invasion of Iran by Israel and the United States.  They rightly thought that the public and street protests at that time would end up benefiting the warlords on both sides of the water rather than benefiting Iran, and the result would be statelessness and chaos and falling into the pit of bloody internal conflicts, not the rule of law and development and democracy of the country.

retreat of the system

Attempting direct negotiations with the United States at the same time as domestic political reforms is considered a positive and even necessary step.  But negotiating with America from a position of weakness is not a solution to the current crisis.  The fact is that after October 7, 2023, the balance of power has been upset to the detriment of the Islamic Republic, and the regime cannot achieve the goals that were within Iran's reach before, and the leader squandered them with historical opportunism.  In my opinion, the nationalist warmongers are right in saying that negotiating with the United States is not possible from an equal position, even if it is not deadlocked, and it is accompanied by giving big concessions to the extent of shutting down uranium enrichment.  But instead of emphasizing structural changes and political openings to make negotiations possible from an equal position, they say that Iran has no choice but to cut ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency, withdraw from the NPT, and build nuclear weapons.  They are oblivious to the fact that following such a path will involve Iran in a devastating war with America and its allies.  I don't think it is unlikely that a group of them, knowing the consequences of this way, make such proposals;  Because they find their interests in the occurrence of war.  As before, they called the sanctions a blessing and engaged in the business of sanctions.  In any case, it cannot and should not be concluded from the unequal conditions of the parties and even from the deadlock of the negotiations that it is better to go to war.  In the situation that the system has lost many of its restraining levers inside and outside, and the economic situation of the country and the living conditions of the people are very dire.

condition of reason

 Iran suffered heavy defeats in its wars with Russia (1182-1193 AH, 1803-1814 AD).  According to the Golestan Treaty, important parts of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Dagestan and Georgia were handed over to the powerful northern neighbor.  Despite this, a group of courtiers, ignoring the change in the balance of power in favor of Russia, insisted on starting the second round of the war.  They ignored Farahani's historic warning that "a war between a country with six crore taxes and a country with six hundred crore taxes is not a condition of reason".  The bitter fruit of the king's ignorance and courtiers' negligence was a heavier defeat and the loss of other parts of Iran and the Iranian Caucasus, including Yerevan and Nakhchivan.  It is instructive that the Iranians called the Turkmenchai Agreement (1207 AH, 1828 AD) disgraceful, but they agreed to it, because by signing it, they were able to take back Tabriz Aziz, which was occupied by the tsar's army.  After 200 years of wars with Russia and the shameful treaties that followed, the nationalists still do not understand or do not want to understand that accepting war is not a condition of reason, and it may cause irreparable damage to the country and may even lead to the disintegration of our beloved Iran.

Strangely, in the last two decades, Iran paid for the production of an atomic bomb, without achieving it.  Now, the same people who gave an excuse to America to take our country's nuclear case to the Security Council and issue back-breaking sanctions resolutions against our country are trying to give Washington a new excuse to plow the soil of our beloved homeland in the name of defending world peace and security and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.  It is clear that the defense against the aggression of the enemy, even after all-out efforts to prevent the start of war, is a separate account.  In that case, you should act according to Hakim Ferdowsi's advice:

Let's all kill head on

than to give the country to the enemy

Negation of unequal war

 "Zelensky" did not have a comprehensive assessment of his position and power, as well as of Russia.  In my opinion, with wise and far-sighted diplomacy, he could establish cordial relations with his powerful neighbor and prevent Moscow's invasion of his country.  I do not intend to justify Putin's expansionist actions and goals in invading Ukraine.  Russia's military aggression against the neighboring country is condemned, but Kiev could have prevented the war that caused a lot of damage and casualties to both sides.  Let's not forget that the establishment of peace also depends on pledging important concessions to Russia.

We also know that 28 countries of the world marched into Afghanistan under the leadership of the United States, but after 20 years of occupation, they shamefully fled from Kabul and handed that country back to the Taliban.  What if these powers worked in a different way?  That is, if they had reached an agreement with the weakened Taliban from the very beginning and required them to respect the rights of all their tribes and nationals, wouldn't blood have been shed much less?  Wouldn't it cause less damage?  And the parties, especially the people of Afghanistan, did not reach a better and more stable result?

Therefore, I say that our country's nuclear case going to the UN Security Council and the issuance of sanctions resolutions against Iran were completely avoidable.  Also, the Israeli air attack and the bombing of our nuclear facilities by the US were inevitable.  I believe that trying to destroy the Shiite Talibanism, like the Sunni Taliban, will not work.  Instead, by mobilizing public opinion, the Taliban should be forced to respect the rights of citizens and especially the right to national sovereignty.  Talibanism, Shiite or Sunni, is an intellectual and political approach with a history of 1300 years and it cannot be destroyed, but it can and should be contained.

No to oppress people, yes to national defense

 Despite the inability and great weakness in providing services to citizens, protecting the environment and controlling inflation and recession, the Islamic Republic is still capable in two cases:

1- Suppression of the opposition, but considering the fact that the multitude of problems, the failure of filtering and the growth of public awareness have made it more difficult and costly to silence critics and especially protesting citizens.

2- UAV-missile power that can deal significant blows to any attacking government, but taking into account the fact that in every new war, the damage that Iran and Iranians see, in most cases, is not comparable to the damage of the other party and the blows inflicted expands the dissatisfaction and problems, especially the economic problems of the people.

In my opinion, in order to control the repressive power of the system, the defense base of the country should not be weakened or made a mistake, as well as the government should not be allowed to beat its critics in the name of strengthening military deterrence and suppress the protesting people under the pretext of war conditions.  In my opinion, the fatal mistakes of the leader inside and outside do not justify or allow military intervention or economic sanctions of foreigners.  Among the consequences of America's military intervention and its economic sanctions so far, the weakening of the middle class and endogenous democratic struggles have been.  Therefore, I consider it necessary for everyone to condemn the confiscation of our country's property and buildings in different parts of the world, the denial of Iran's ownership of the three islands in the Persian Gulf, the violation of the homeland's sky, and the bombing, especially the bombing of nuclear and industrial centers, etc.  At the same time, I know that it is the duty of individual citizens to expose and deal with the costly mistakes of the leader or his faction for the continuation of executions, new arrests, the return of guidance patrols, the continuation of filtering, the formation of factional juries, the warmongering of radio and television, and the further isolation of Iran in the world on the one hand, and back-breaking economic policies on the other.  Let me be clear: it is necessary to unconditionally defend the country's defense and military preparedness and its requirements, and at the same time firmly oppose the militarization of the government and the garrisoning of the society.  Weakening the armed forces is against national interests.  However, the involvement of the army in non-defense and civilian matters should be condemned clearly and decisively so that their interference in political, electoral, media, etc. fields ends.

The need for the intelligence of the opposition

 Critics and opponents of the system should not repeat the mistake of Wali Faqih.  In the name of fighting against America, he has become tyrannical and separated himself and his government from the majority of the nation.  In the name of fighting against religious tyranny, the opposition should not fall into the trap of big governments or welcome the military invasion and economic sanctions of the United States.  Ignoring the rosary thread of the nation's struggles since the constitutional revolution is a big mistake.  Iranians are both independence-seekers and freedom-seekers.  They do not sacrifice national independence and sovereignty for individual freedom, nor do they stop demanding civil and political rights and freedoms of citizens in the name of preserving independence.  Also, if the hard core does not have the power to realistically understand its base and position, as well as the course of national, regional and global developments, its critics and opponents should not suffer from this great flaw and make the circle of impossible luck.  They should see the facts, no matter how bitter, and adjust their strategy accordingly to realize the aspirations of the nation.  For example, if the opponents of the absolutist monarchy do not have a charismatic leader accepted by all, a mobilizing and unifying ideology, and a nationwide organization, it is necessary to formulate their strategy in order to achieve development, democracy and freedom, as well as fight against oppression, corruption and inequality based on these sometimes unpleasant facts.

A coalition of demands

In a situation where the dispersal of forces, ideological and political differences, and conflict of interests make political and organizational coalitions impossible, coalitions of demands can be formed and an agreement can be reached, especially on "what should not be done" and to a large extent on "what should be done".  That is, he agreed on important and common negative issues, such as the denial of violence, the denial of foreign interference, and the denial of exclusivity and totalitarianism on the one hand, as well as positive positions such as the freedom of hijab, freedom of the media and internet, freedom of thought, pen and expression, freedom of peaceful protest, freedom to form parties, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and labor unions, employees, employers, and freedom of elections, etc., on the other hand.  Together with the people's resistance/disobedience, we should deny the concentration of power in the hands of one person, that too in a lifelong and especially hereditary form, deny the interference of the military in non-defense and civilian affairs, deny the monopoly of the radio and television, deny the dependence of the judicial system on the ruling power and criticize the leader's Iran-fueled policies, regardless of whether the consensus supporters of the constitutional monarchy or republican and democratic transitionist or reformist  be structured  It is important that they reach a common opinion and understanding about the independence of the homeland, the sovereign right of each generation to determine its own destiny, territorial integrity and territorial integrity, while defending the rights of various Iranian ethnic groups, equal citizenship rights for all Iranians, non-violence and the rule of law.

Anarchy from above

 The Islamic Republic has three options:

Continuation of the status quo;  structural changes;  and overthrow

Continuation of the current policies of the leadership with at most a few tactical and partial reforms will have no result other than increasing dissatisfactions and inabilities of the government in the following areas:

1- Curbing inflation, stagnation and unemployment

2- Removal of sanctions

3- Preventing brain drain and preserving material and spiritual capital

4- Reconstruction of worn-out equipment and facilities of various industries

The above problems have weakened the position of the center of power so much that it even seems to delay the repair of the Azadi Stadium so that, according to its opinion, the gathering of 100,000 people will not be possible soon.  Or it prevents the holding of a music concert in Azadi Square, lest the citizens protest against the incompetence of the government.  In my opinion, the continuation of the status quo will sooner or later lead to the ineffectiveness of the government in various fields and eventually to statelessness. 

The failed experience of Pezeshkian 

 The performance of the Pezeshkian government shows that carrying out tactical reforms under the leader's menu not only solves the problems, but also increases the scope and depth of the crises.  I believe that the political and economic collapse of the system has accelerated so much that changes to this extent cannot prevent its collapse.  It is true that the non-implementation of the mandatory hijab bill, the start of negotiations with the United States, and restraint towards Israel, especially after the operation of True Promise 2, were among the important reasons for the silence of the people during the 12-day war, but the conditions after the war are different.  General resilience and control of society against sanctions, increasing and back-breaking inflation, growth of unemployment and control of anger caused by humiliation, corruption and systematic discrimination will not be possible from some point on.  In addition to solving economic and social problems, citizens have legitimate expectations about removing the specter of war, civil and political openings, nationalization of radio and television, equal opportunities and participation in the field of self-determination.  Failure to fulfill these demands will bring the gap between the government and the people to the point of no return.  The crisis situation of the country is like a disease that needs urgent and dangerous surgery and cannot be treated with Pezeshkian and conventional treatment methods.  Even surgery may not achieve the desired result and the patient may die, but he has no other choice.  In the current difficult situation, the type and amount of changes should be determined by the country's needs and the nation's demands, not by the leader's menus and prescriptions.

On the other hand, the failure of Pezeshkian should not direct the flood of criticism towards his government.  The main reason for the failure of doctors, rather than returning to himself, is due to the inefficient structure and accumulated problems caused by the hidden government, under the direct guidance of the leader.  It is Mr. Khamenei who has blocked the path of any important positive development for the benefit of the people.  The leader has closed the way for both policy changes and the election of reformers, and has given space to opportunists and scoundrels who defend the current oppressive, corrupt and unequal relations with their windfalls and are sometimes busy sucking the nation's blood like leeches.  I do not ignore the government's small reforms either, but the case improvements have the role of housing at best.  They reduce the pain a little, but they are not able to cure the dying patient.

درباره‌ی براندازی

تلاش برای سرنگونی هر رژیمِ دارایِ پایگاه مردمی، اگرچه اقلیّت، اما مومن، سازمان‌یافته و مسلح که منابع، انگیزه، اراده و ابزار سرکوب مخالفان را دارد و برای بقای خود به هر وسیله‌ای، از سرکوب خونین مردم معترض تا اعدام فله‌ای مخالفان متشبث می‌شود، بدون تردید با خشونت همراه خواهد بود. چنین راهبردی اگر به سقوط رژیم نینجامد، آن‌را خشن‌تر، وحشی‌تر و سرکوبگرتر می‌کند. چنانچه به تغییر رژیم منجر شود، به‌احتمال‌زیاد دمکراسی و حاکمیت قانون را به ارمغان نمی‌آورد. در مرحله اول هرج‌ومرج بر کشور حاکم می‌شود و پس از مدتی از دل بی‌دولتی، دیکتاتوری تازه‌نفس ظهور می‌کند که به نام حفظ امنیت عمومی و ملی، چنان خفقانی بر جامعه حاکم خواهد کرد که مستبد پیر و قدیمی را روسفید می‌کند. طالبانیسم شیعی را نیز پس از شکست مقطعی تقویت می‌کند و به کسب مجدد قدرت امیدوار می‌سازد، شبیه آنچه در افغانستان رخ داد.

برهمین‌اساس می‌گویم سختی و حتی طولانی‌بودن مسیر دمکراسی‌خواهی و روش خشونت‌پرهیزی نباید ما را از پیمودن آن راه منصرف کند و به فکر راه‌های میانبری اندازد که سراب‌اند؛ روندگان را هلاک و نظران را مایوس می‌کنند. 

به نظر من در هر جامعه‌ای که در آن اختلاف عقاید، سلایق و منافع غوغا می‌کند و متشکل از اقوامی با سنن و آداب و رسوم و فرهنگ و زبان‌های متفاوت است، دستیابی به ثبات، امنیت، آزادی و عدالت صرفاً با دیدن و به‌رسمیت شناختن یکدیگر، احترام متقابل، پذیرش حقوق برابر برای همه اقوام و شهروندان و تنها و تنها با گفت‌وگوی آزاد، علنی و همگانی میسر می‌شود. تجربه نشان‌داده که توهم پیروزی یک گرایش یا یک جریان و حذف و طرد سایرین، سیاه‌چاله‌ای است که افتادن درون آن برای ملت زیان‌بار است و به مستبدان امکان سوءاستفاده زیادی می‌دهد.

دخالت نظامی دولت‌های بزرگ نیز آرمان‌های ملت ایران را محقق نخواهد کرد. به باور من حملات هوایی احتمالی تل‌آویو و واشنگتن، حتی اگر بتواند نظام را ساقط کند، محتمل‌ترین پیامدش بی‌دولتی و سال‌ها هرج‌ومرج است. در خاورمیانه کنونی دل‌بستن به دخالت نظامی بیگانگان درنهایت به سرخوردگی ملی می‌انجامد، حتی اگر به همدستی با آنان در ویرانی میهن ختم نشود. درمورد خاص ایران، به استقرار دمکراسی، صلح در منطقه و آبادانی کشور منجر نمی‌شود.

سخنم با براندازان در یک کلام این است: اگر قدرت سرنگونی رژیم و جایگزینی نظمی تازه را دارید، به‌طریق‌اولی می‌توانید هسته سخت قدرت را مجبور به برگزاری رفراندوم و تشکیل مجلس مؤسسان کنید تا تحولات بزرگ متناسب با نظر ملت و به شکل گفت‌وگویی و مسالمت‌آمیز رقم بخورد. اگر فاقد چنین قدرتی هستید، از شیوه‌های مدنی و خشونت‌پرهیز تغییر پشتیبانی کنید تا فضا امنیتی‌تر و پلیسی‌تر نشود، هزینه فعالیت‌های سیاسی بالاتر نرود، یاس و استیصال بیشتر نگردد و حکومت به‌طور کامل در اختیار راست فاشیست قرار نگیرد. 

تغییرات ساختاری

 من انجام تغییرات استراتژیک و فوری در هر سه زمینه ساختاری، سیاستی و مدیریتی به‌نحو مسالمت‌آمیز را راه نجات ایران و شرط موفقیت آن‌را منوط به تحقق شرایط زیر می‌دانم:

۱- پایان‌یافتن استراتژی آزادی‌ستیز و مردم‌گریز رهبر

۲- تجدیدنظر حاکمیت در راهبرد آمریکاستیز خود و اولویت‌دادن به توسعه میهن و رفاه هم‌میهنان

۳- رفع موانع به‌کارگیری نیروهای متخصص، کاردان و مستقل

۴- اصلاح/تغییر قانون اساسی مطابق نظر «ملت بالفعل» یعنی همین مردم کوچه و بازار، براساس حق مسلم تعیین سرنوشت کشور به‌دست هر نسل. سقف اصلاحات/تغییرات قانون اساسی را نمایندگان برگزیده ملت در مجلس مؤسسان تعیین خواهند کرد و آن‌ها را به همه‌پرسی خواهند گذاشت. اگرچه به‌نظر می‌رسد کف خواسته‌های ملی، حذف ولایت فقیه از قانون اساسی و خاتمه‌دادن به حکومت فقها و روحانیون است که تجربه تلخ و شکست‌خورده حاکمیت کلیسا در قرون وسطا را در جهان معاصر زنده کرده است.

بازگشت به مردم

 تضمینی نیست که در نتیجه بازگشت حاکمیت به مردم، آمریکا از موضع برابر با ایران روبه‌رو شود، اما چنین اقدامی ضرورت تام دارد، چراکه:

۱- حاکمیت ملت بر سرنوشت خویش حق آن‌هاست و قانون اساسی بر آن تصریح دارد.

۲- جمهوری اسلامی براساس چنین وعده‌ای تاسیس و میزان رای ملت خوانده شد.

۳- یکی از دلایل استراتژیک تهاجم نظامی اسرائیل و آمریکا و الزام‌آورشدن مجدد تحریم‌های اقتصادی، اقلیّتی‌شدن پایگاه اجتماعی نظام است. خطای محاسباتی مهاجمان این بود که تصور می‌کردند مردم، همزمان با بمباران‌ها و در اعتراض به انبوه مشکلات، علیه جمهوری اسلامی به خیابان‌ها می‌ریزند و کار رژیم را تمام می‌کنند. حال اگر ببینند جنگ ۱۲ روزه نتیجه عکس داده، رهبر با تجدیدنظر در رویکرد اشتباه پیشین از توهمات منطقه‌ای دست برداشته، حقوق و آزادی‌های شهروندان را به‌رسمیت شناخته، درصدد پرکردن شکاف عمیق حکومت با ملت برآمده و می‌کوشد با توزیع عادلانه قدرت و ثروت، مشارکت آحاد مردم را جلب کند، به‌احتمالِ‌زیاد خود را ناچار می‌بینند که از موضعی مناسب با نمایندگانِ حکومتِ متکی به رای اکثریتِ یک ملت بزرگِ ۹۰ میلیونی مذاکره کنند. چنان‌که حماسه مردم در دوم خرداد ۱۳۷۶ موجب شد که آمریکا از حمله نظامی محدود به ایران، در پاسخ به انفجار الخُبر عربستان، چشم بپوشد و انتخابات ۷۲ درصدی ریاست جمهوری سال ۱۳۹۲ نیز شبح جنگ را از آسمان کشورمان دور کرد و به مذاکرات موفق هسته‌ای منجر شد.

گذار به روش مشروطه

 تأکیدم بر ضرورت تغییرات در دوره‌ی حیات آقای خامنه‌ای، به‌دلیل ناامیدی از مردم یا خوش‌بینی به او نیست. من به آگاهی و عزم ایرانیان برای دستیابی به آزادی، برابری و پیشرفت ایمان دارم، اما تنها مسیر مسالمت‌آمیز گذار از استبداد دینی را جلب همکاری هسته سخت قدرت، به شمول پاسداران و روحانیون می‌بینم. به اعتقاد من هر دو آلترناتیو این راهبرد، یعنی حفظ وضع موجود یا سرنگونی خشونت‌آمیز، به بی‌دولتی و فروپاشی خواهند انجامید‌. تداوم وضع موجود با ناتوانی در ارائه خدمات عمومی و تشدید مشکلات اقتصادی و اجتماعی به‌تدریج بی‌دولتی را حاکم می‌کند. سرنگونی خشونت‌آمیز هم به‌شکل دفعی و از پایین، کشور را با خلاء قدرت روبه‌رو خواهد ساخت. پیامد مشترک هر دو به‌احتمالِ‌بسیارزیاد هرج‌ومرج طولانی‌مدت، مداخله نظامی خارجی و تکه‌تکه‌شدن احتمالی ایران است.

به باور من ایرانیان یا می‌توانند با حفظ نظم و همانند انقلاب مشروطه، دگرگونی بنیادی در ساختار حکومت را رقم بزنند، یا در مسیر خلاء قدرت و هرج‌ومرج می‌افتند. 

من در شرایط کنونی به دلایل متعدد گزینه «برد–باخت» را منتفی می‌دانم. یا همه از تغییرات منتفع می‌شوند یا همگی زیان می‌بینند. به بیان دیگر ما یا قادر به تحقق راهبرد برد-برد خواهیم شد و همه از جبهه پایداری تا پادشاهی‌خواهان از نظم جدید سود خواهند برد یا همه زیان خواهیم کرد. زیرا درحال‌حاضر تنها دو راهبرد دو سر برد یا دو سر باخت، ممکن و در دسترس است. یا همه می‌بریم یا همه می‌بازیم. برهمین‌اساس باید به رهبر تفهیم کرد که گرچه عقب‌نشینی او هزینه سنگینی برای وی و حامیانش دارد، اما عقب‌نشینی داوطلبانه و تسلیمِ حقِ تعیینِ سرنوشتِ ملت شدن، عواقبی به‌مراتب کمتر از عقب‌نشینی تحمیلی و پرهزینه توسط مردم برای ولی‌فقیه و وفادارانش دارد، به‌ویژه باتوجه به احتمال مداخله خارجی که مسئولیت آن مستقیماً متوجه رهبر خواهد گردید. من موثرترین اقدام برای خروج از بحران‌ها را، پذیرش حق تعیین سرنوشت ملت، گشودن راه مشارکت همگانی و ایجاد موازنه جدید قوا به‌سود جامعه می‌دانم. چنین تحولی جان تازه‌ای به کشور می‌بخشد، تاب‌آوری جامعه را افزایش می‌دهد و حل مشکلات و موفقیت دیپلماسی را تسهیل می‌کند، ثبات سیاسی را ‌نیز تداوم می‌بخشد، مشروط بر اینکه مردم تغییر رویکرد رهبر و توجه او به مطالباتشان را آشکارا ببینند.

من بر سرمشق قراردادن الگوی مقاومت/نافرمانی مدنی برای آزادی حجاب تاکید دارم. راهبرد موفقی که طبق آن، مردم اراده‌ی خود را بر ولی‌فقیه و دستگاه سرکوبش تحمیل کردند. همچنان‌که در مورد ویدئو، ماهواره و دسترسی آزاد به اینترنت نیز همین مسیر را پیمودند و نتیجه گرفتند. اکنون هم مردم می‌توانند با همان سیاق، یعنی با مقاومت مدنی و با کمترین تلفات و ضایعات و بیشترین ابتکارات و صدالبته با پایداری، «اسلام آمرانه» و «ولایت زوری» را از میدان به‌در کنند، حکومت روحانیون را برچینند و به نظام ولایت فقیه پایان دهند.

اگر رهبر بر سیاست‌های آزادی‌ستیز و مشارکت‌گریز پافشاری کند یا به سرکوب و محدودیت‌های تازه رو آورد، خطایی فاجعه‌بار مرتکب خواهد شد. زیرا کشور در وضعیت انفجاری ناشی از بحران‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی است و هر لحظه امکان شورش‌های گسترده وجود دارد. شورش‌هایی که لزوماً به نظم دمکراتیک نمی‌انجامد. در چنین حالتی رهبر نه‌تنها مسئول وضعیت بحران‌زده‌ی کنونی است، بلکه متهم اصلی هر بحرانی در آینده ازجمله بی‌دولتی، هرج‌ومرج، جنگ داخلی و چه بسا تهدید یکپارچگی ایران نیز خواهد بود. او هرگز نباید از یاد ببرد که مردم تغییر می‌خواهند و به آن جامه‌ی عمل خواهند پوشاند همراهی با این خواست شرط عقل است.

 زندان اوین - ۲۷ آبانماه ۱۴۰۴