Proposing deep questions with the change of president and government by Hossein Bastani

The new president and "hard questions"

During the 2024 presidential election campaigns, ideas were raised in the media space of Iran, whose implicit or explicit meaning was the possibility of changing the macro policies of the government through the ballot boxes. Various references to issues such as the 2022 protests, the mandatory hijab issue, and foreign policy clearly had such a mood. Even many promises related to the improvement of the economic situation of the country, despite the cautious appearance, had the same feature in their hearts.

Now, with the end of campaigning and election conflicts, the proponents of the above ideas have been exposed to specific questions about the possibility of their "realization". The following questions are just a few examples of these questions, each of which can be asked assuming a possible development during the new government period:

1- A new anti-government movement of the 2022 protests is taking place in the streets of Iran. The leader wants to deal strongly with them and the armed forces are shooting at the protesters. How likely is it that the president will be able to stop the killing of protesters or publicly confront the leader and the armed forces under his command amid repression?

2- The government concludes that the government can no longer afford the security and economic costs of imposing the mandatory hijab. It is not possible to involve a huge part of the budget and police personnel to control women's hijab, in a situation where violent crimes are out of control in the country. To what extent is it conceivable that the president, despite the opposition of the leader, will engage in conflict with other government institutions to "officially" cancel the mandatory hijab?

3- The IRGC and specifically the Quds Force are on the verge of a new military conflict in a part of the region. According to the government's summary, this conflict is unnecessary or avoidable. Especially because due to the economic limitations of the country, it is absolutely unable to finance the economic costs of the new conflict. Will the president be able to "not provide" the financial costs of this military conflict?

4- The government needs extensive savings to prevent the bankruptcy of pension funds. For this purpose, it is necessary to cut the budget of several advertising institutions affiliated to the leadership institution - whose performance has been evaluated as useless or harmful. Will he have the power to implement his decision?

5- The government is convinced that the institutions under the supervision of the leader or companies affiliated with the IRGC are involved in widespread financial corruption, are not seriously audited and do not pay real taxes. On this basis, the president insists that these institutions and companies be carefully audited so that the status of their accounts becomes clear and then they pay the real taxes for their activities. Will he be able to implement his economic decision despite the opposition of the leader?

There is no need to emphasize that such questions can be extended to various other fields.

Asking such questions does not mean that the transfer of the president will not bring about any change in Iran's government. The change of the head of government will definitely cause changes in the performance of a number of government ministries - and of course not all of them.

But the idea that the 2024 presidential election will have the power to force Ali Khamenei to reconsider his macro policies will inevitably make raising questions of the above kind inevitable. Even if they are more or less neglected amid election excitement, during the new government's tenure, it will be "inevitable" to answer them.